The Gold Price has Traced Out a Giant W on its Chart, With a Double Bottom at Roughly $1,580 - $1,585

The Gold Price has Traced Out a Giant W on its Chart, With a Double Bottom at Roughly $1,580 - $1,585
Gold Price Close Today : 1,601.30
Gold Price Close 15-Jul : 1,589.80
Change : 11.50 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 4011.3
Silver Price Close 15-Jul : 3906.3
Change : 105.00 or 2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.920
Gold Silver Ratio 15-Jul : 40.698
Change : -0.78 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02505
Silver Gold Ratio 15-Jul : 0.02457
Change : 0.00048 or 2.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 163.71
Dow in Gold Dollars 15-Jul : $ 162.25
Change : $ 1.45 or 0.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.919
Dow in Gold Ounces 15-Jul : 7.849
Change : 0.07 or 0.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 316.14
Dow in Silver Ounces 15-Jul : 319.44
Change : -3.30 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,681.16
Dow Industrial 15-Jul : 12,478.21
Change : 202.95 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,345.02
S&P 500 15-Jul : 1,315.79
Change : 29.23 or 2.2%

US Dollar Index : 74.224
US Dollar Index 15-Jul : 75.140
Change : -0.916 or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,795.40
Platinum Price Close 15-Jul : 1,760.30
Change : 35.10 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 806.95
Palladium Price Close 15-Jul : 782.35
Change : 24.60 or 3.1%


Let numbers speak, not opinions, ratiocinations, and interpretations. Through all the up and down, silver and gold held their ground gained this week. Stocks added a little, while the dollar fell. Platinum gained 2% and palladium with +3.1% was the big gainer for the week.

Now come the opinions, ratiocination, interpretations, and wild guesses.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and today the GOLD PRICE has traced out a giant W on its chart, with a double bottom at roughly $1,580 - $1,585. If anybody still thought he could parse this market, he was handed his head again today. After the European bail out was announced, the GOLD PRICE fell to $1,585. Pressure of Greek default removed, bailout arranged ought to have eased demand for gold, right? Wrong. Came roaring back today, up $14.50 to $1,601.30 on Comex and an intraday high at $1,607.

What else can you say but, "The GOLD PRICE will move higher next week." It will break through $1,607 and keep on going, since it refused to break down when the euro deal was announced.

Here's an intriguing tidbit. Soon there will be no gold coins that sell for less than $100. There's the Mexican two pesos (0.0482 oz) for about $78 and the Mex 2-1/2 pesos (0.0603) for $97. If they were available, the old US $1 gold pieces (0.048375) would cost about $78. When that $1.00 gold piece reaches $100, that is, 1/100th of the paper dollar's 1913 value, gold will stand at $2,067.18, a mere 29% above its present value.

Silver's spike bottom on Wednesday marked the beginning of another uptrend, or at least yesterday's and today's lows were higher than Wednesday. The SILVER PRICE was stymied by 4025c today, but refused to sink lower than 3889c. Comex gained a staggering 117.6c to close Comex at 4011.3c, over 4000c again.

Standing in the way is resistance just under 4100c. Once the SILVER PRICE crosses that, y'all must bear in mind, virtually no resistance appears before the last high at 4982c. Meanwhile the 20 DMA (3682c) crossed above the 50 DMA (3633c) and other momentum indicators have turned up. I have to conclude the SILVER PRICE will move higher next week.

Yes, I know it's all out of season and unexpected, but even against the tide of "good" news out of Europe, silver and gold are determined to rise. Don't stand in their way, they'll bruise you.

The intraday Dow high at 12,754 was matched almost exactly by yesterday's 12,751. Either that marked a double top whence the Dow will fall, or it is merely pausing in a new rally.

Favoring a rally is the Dow's position above its 50 and 20 DMAs (12,343 and 12,465). Also the 20 DMA crossed above the 20 a week ago, turning the momentum up. So it can rise further still.

Stocks were confused today. Dow fell 43.25 to 12,681.16 while the S&P500 rose 1.22. Last two days action on the daily chart is rolling over floorward.

I've been over and over stocks in my mind, and I just can't get around the gigantic facts. In inflation adjusted terms, stocks have lost since 2000. In silver and gold terms, they've lost more than 80%, with another 80% to go. I know there must be some reason that people want to own stocks, I simply cannot imagine what it might be.

Stocks remain the Vanishing Creame in the Investment Make-up Cabinet. Rub it in, your capital vanishes.

Sobriety bit today after yesterday's drunken enthusiasm over the Greek bail-out deal -- maybe I ought to call that a "deal-ette", since it ain't much of a deal -- and the US dollar index rose 20.9 basis points to 74.224, up 0.27%. Doesn't help the technical damage dollar did yesterday by falling through the uptrend line from May. Only question now is which previous bottom will catch the dollar, 74.11, 73.50, or 72.70? Yesterday's goose carried the euro only to the downtrend line, not thru, and today it gave a chunk of that back. Closed 1.4372, down 0.37%. Remains barely above 50 and 20 DMAs, which are paralleling each other (1.4301 and 1.4273). Euro remains locked in a downtrend, in spite of all the help the Nice Government Men and Benevolent Central Bankers have given it.

Japanese yen broke out upwards two weeks ago and at yesterday's high of Y78.22/$ (127.85c/Y100) threatens the earthquake high at 128.79. BoJ NGM must be having three hissy fits.

O, black day! On 22 July 1944 the Bretton Woods (New Hampshire) Conference created the International Monetary Fund and the post war monetary arrangements with the dollar only fixed to gold and every other currency fixed to the dollar. For the US economy it was a one way ticket to hell, because it guaranteed that US manufacturers were subjected to rising costs and lower prices thru domestic inflation, while their international competitors exporting to America had falling costs and rising prices by receiving gold-convertible dollars. Great idea, Nice Government Geniuses. Any wonder American industry dwindled over the next 30 years?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

The Gold Price Could Easily Close Above $1,600 Tomorrow, and Hit $1,625 or More

The Gold Price Could Easily Close Above $1,600 Tomorrow, and Hit $1,625 or More
Gold Price Close Today : 1585.20
Change : 23.30 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 38.148
Change : 2.519 or 7.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 41.55
Change : -2.284 or -5.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02407
Change : 0.001254 or 5.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1756.30
Change : 23.50 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 777.60
Change : 12.55 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,317.72
Change : 4.08 or 0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.90
Change : $ (1.82) or -1.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.880
Change : -0.088 or -1.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 327.45
Change : -21.90 or -6.3%

Dow Industrial : 12,491.61
Change : 44.73 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 75.16
Change : -0.650 or -0.9%

Sorry, business takes me to East Tennessee tomorrow and I won't be back until Saturday, so I won't be sending commentaries tomorrow or Friday.

I seem to remember a point back in April as silver was peaking when it gained 8% in one day. Today it gained in one flat-footed leap 7.1% or 251.9c to close at 3814.8c. Gold added 1.5% or $23.30 to close at $1,585.20. Meanwhile, the dollar fell.

Overnight the GOLD PRICE backed off to $1,565, but had eased up to up to $1,575 by New York open. About 9:00 all the nay-sayers ran for cover, and gold shot steadily up to $,1587.7 at 11:15. Rest of the day rolled over a little. Comex closed $1,585.20, up $23.30. Probably the Bernancubus' statements helped drive gold higher.

Only a fool would stand in the way of a rally like this. When it tops it will begin to waver, to back and fill, but that ain't yet. Could easily close above $1,600 tomorrow, and hit $1,625 or more.

CAREFUL! Rapid rises tend to be spongy and turn around quickly. Keep reminding yourself that as gold rises, just to retain a philosophical outlook.

To turn down the GOLD PRICE would have to close below $1,560. Look for the NGM to attack it tomorrow. They whacked the dollar today so are now free to turn their attention to gold and silver. Won't matter, unless some cure is found for the European financial crisis.

After gapping up yesterday to a new all-time high gold moved up to another new all-time high in euros, closing at E1,121.

As I guessed, the SILVER PRICE poked its nose thru the 50 day moving average at 3616c and panicked all its enemies and short sellers. 251.9c gain in one day is a huge move, for silver or anything else. By 9:00 silver had already hit 3700c, then perhaps Bernancubus' remarks about his future monetary generosity kicked in and drove silver to a high of 3840c. Comex closed 3814.8c, but could drive thru 3850c tomorrow, which sets it up for another leap straight up to 4000c - 4100c.

The SILVER PRICE will move much higher.

Somebody told me the Bernancubus' said in his comments today that gold is not money. Poor ol' boy's been hanging out in them Ivory League colleges too long. If he pulled down the United States Code off his shelf and read Title 31 he would find that all sorts of gold coins are legal tender -- "money" -- under United States law. I reckon they don't teach them economists to read when they're playing in the Ivory League. Only a natural born fool from Tennessee would go to the trouble of pulling down the law book and reading the law. Economists are above that.

Dollar fell today to 75.159, down 65 basis points or 0.84%. That was a Birth Certificate sort of day, appearing to show one thing but pointing at another.

No doubt Bernancubus' Nice Government Men, together with the Euro NGM, have been sweating bullets and losing sleep trying to keep that dollar down and the Euro up. They work together, you know.

All that was necessary was to push the dollar thru 75.50 and the stop orders and nervous traders did the rest, carrying it down to 75.159, now trading at 74.968, down 84.1 basis points. Let's see -- European financial crisis, gold up 1.5%, euro sinking out of sight yesterday nearly through its 200 DMA, AND the dollar sinks. Sure, that makes sense. Yeah, that's SOME birth certificate.

More, the Bernancubus unlimbered Samson's best weapon today to talk the dollar down allowing how he'd supply more "stimulus" if needed.

I hope y'all have caught on, but I wonder when everybody else will stop paying attention to this wretched sideshow and dump dollars altogether as too big a mess to be borne.

Stocks were buoyed a bit by the Bernancubus-ism's rolling out of the Sybillic lips today, but it was nothing worthy of awe. Stocks' high today took them up 165 points, but they closed up only 44.73 points (Dow at 12,491.61). You may call that a lot of things, but "strong" ain't one of 'em.

Stocks -- the broken tooth in the Hall of Investor Dental Health.

On 13 July 1931 the German Danabank failed, leading to closing all German banks until August 5. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

Today's $13.10 Rise Took the Gold Price to $1,561.90, a New High Close.

Today's $13.10 Rise Took the Gold Price to $1,561.90, a New High Close
Gold Price Close Today : 1561.90
Change : 13.10 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.629
Change : (0.060) or -0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.84
Change : 0.441 or 1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02281
Change : -0.000232 or -1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1732.80
Change : 2.30 or 0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 765.05
Change : -22.60 or -2.9%

S&P 500 : 1,313.64
Change : -15.88 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.74
Change : $ (2.16) or -1.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.969
Change : -0.105 or -1.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 349.35
Change : -1.06 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial : 12,446.88
Change : -58.88 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index : 76.02
Change : 0.051 or 0.1%

Weird day. Fates are messing with the markets.

Fear of European financial crisis keeps panicking buyers out of euros and stocks and into dollars and GOLD -- but not SILVER.

I reckon I got something right yesterday, snuffing out the nervousness when I wrote, if gold "trading even HINTS it intends to pierce that [$1,560 resistance] level, gold will race toward $1,575."

Somebody heard that hint today. Overnight the GOLD PRICE traded down to 1540, and opened in NY at 1549.60. Stayed under $1,555 until 1:30, when the whispers hit the market. Not sure if that was the time that S&P announced it was downgrading Ireland's debt to junk status or not, but that would surely fit. Literally, next thing I saw was the GOLD PRICE at $1,564, then $1,573.25.

Let's deal with that new all-time high close first. On 2 May gold topped at $1,556.70. Today's $13.10 rise took Comex gold to $1,561.90, a new high close. Two interpretations wrestle here: is it a double top, or a breakout beginning a new rally?

Remember the rule of thumb says a market must break out by at least 2% (some say 3%) to qualify as a breakout. That would take gold to $1,587.85 ($1,603.40 for 3%).

Here's the risk. Markets correct downward in three waves, A-down, B-up, C-down. I claim not to be able to discern these, but my untrained eye sees A-down to $1,462, then works at trying to find the rest of B and C. Then I recall that B waves are often so ebullient, especially in bull markets, that they exceed the high beforehand and appear to be breaking out to a new rally, until their bottom falls out in a C-Down that takes them to new lows.

And bear in mind that sudden, jerky moves can reveal strength beneath, but they also are handmaiden to tops.

NOTE WELL that I am NOT calling this move by that name, only explaining that gold's position is nowhere near as clear as the mindless enthusiasts would have you believe.

On the other hand (Mercy! I'm sounding like an economist!) gold has made a slightly higher new high, and a financial crisis is fueling it, and you'd have to be a central banker not to conclude that gold will drive higher for the next few days. Question is, how much higher?

Right here there's not enough tea in China or ham in Tennessee to tempt me to short gold. To turn bearish gold would first need to close below $1,540 then follow up quickly with a close below $1,520. Tomorrow, gold could easily touch $1,600, and run on to $1,625.

All things considered, I would buy here (did buy some today) and not mourn too long if gold fell back down. Why not, because I can't add and subtract? No, only because gold, despite whatever intervening tumbles, will end the year much higher, and scale price heights presently inconceivable even to its cheerleaders.

Did I mention that gold in euros made a new all-time high today, too? E1119, versus old high at E1088, 2.8% higher.

Here's an added twist to yesterday's SILVER PRICE story. Silver, as I noted, tends to outperform gold when stocks are strong, and underperform when stocks are weak. Historical fact, not treason. Yet more lurks beneath the surface. When gld rises, most observers expect silver to rise as well, so if you are jimmying the gold price, as Nice Government Men are wont to do, you need to jimmy silver, too, so that the market says, "Gee whiz! Gold is rising but silver is not -- maybe that means the gold rise is phony!" Just a thought.

And what brought that though bubbling to the surface of my boiling brain was silver's behavior.

Yesterday it lost 85c, to 3568.9c. Overnight it sank like a rock to 3475c, but just as swiftly arose from its bed of shame in the gutter, shook itself off, and shot up the stairs to close Comex at 3562.9c, THEN add another 53c in the aftermarket to 3616c.

Meanwhile all the gurus and media voices are intoning their mantra (stocks and silver, remember) that silver is falling in response to reduced global economic expectations. Yeah, maybe. And maybe not.

Add all that up, and I wouldn't short silver with your money. Silver's tussling with its 50 DMA at 3617c, and tomorrow is liable to paint a black eye on all those clever people and run for 3850c.

I'm just doing the best I can to stay long silver, but as quick as I buy it somebody calls and buys it away.

Another tasty tidbit: that wholesale buy discount on US 90% silver coin which stood on 98c under spot on 6 July, today has climbed to 68c under spot. This transpires after a long period when the discount has ranged 115c - 105c. I trust that premium to tell me when silver is serious about rising, and its screaming that right now.

European financial crisis is driving this gold rally, so don't get too excited. Once fuel is withdrawn from a fire, it dies out. Buy sparingly here, with one eye on the end of the crisis, and one on its worsening.

Gold silver ratio today rose a 0.50 to 43.838. One remember with sharp longing the Fall 2008 US financial crisis and the opportunity it afforded to swap gold for silver at ridiculously high ratios, and to gobble up silver on the cheap. We might see that again, and join in shooting fish in a rain barrel.

Dollar index last night punched thru 76 and ran to 76.70 before the Nice Government Men called out their cowboys to tame that bucking bronco. They managed to run it down today to 75.703, but it was like holding a basketball underwater. Not much changed from yesterday it's now trading at 76.022, but that's as phony as the Consumer Price Index. 'Twill rise again tomorrow.

The euro added more downside to yesterday's gap, down 0.44% to 1.3970. The 200 DMA draweth nigh, and standeth now at 1.3902. The yen slipped out of the Japanese NGM's grip like a bar of soap in a bathtub, gapping up to Y79.18/$ (126.3c/Y100). NGM won't be enjoying sake and sushimi in peace tonight, I dare say.

Markets are whipping stocks like a rented mule. Dow lost 58.88 today to settle at 12,446.88 (down 0.47%) and S&P retreated 5.85 (0.44%) to 1,313.64. Trading was jerky and ragged. Looking bewildered, timid, and scared.

Stocks -- you can count on 'em in a crisis, just like a sprained ankle.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

For the Nonce, and Probably for the Duration of this Financial Panic, Silver and Gold Seem to Have Parted Ways.

For the Nonce, and Probably for the Duration of this Financial Panic, Silver and Gold Seem to Have Parted Ways.
Gold Price Close Today : 1548.80
Change : 7.60 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.689
Change : (0.847) or -2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.40
Change : 1.214 or 2.9%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02304
Change : -0.000663 or -2.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1727.50
Change : -3.00 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 767.60
Change : -20.05 or -2.5%

S&P 500 : 1,319.49
Change : -24.31 or -1.8%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.91
Change : $ (2.84) or -1.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.074
Change : -0.137 or -1.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 350.41
Change : 3.98 or 1.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,505.76
Change : -151.44 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index : 75.97
Change : 0.644 or 0.9%

Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

Friday the GOLD PRICE had bumped up against the ceiling at $1,545, and kept bumping along over the weekend In European trading early today it began battering the hatch, then burst through about 7:00 a.m. NY time. By NY open the climb had already reached $1,550, and accelerated, but stalled at $1,556. Oddly, oddly -- in the view of those who know not the Nice Government Men who shepherd the markets -- about 10:30 some massive selling took the market in 15 minutes from $1,556 to $1,542. Means, motive, opportunity: We know the NGM have the means to manipulate silver and gold prices, we know their motive is to keep gold from running away while the euro is sinking out of sight, and of course they had opportunity and occasion today. Did them no good, though, because the gold price swiftly recovered to 1848, then climbed steadily through the day, ending Comex up 7.60 at $1,548.80. In the aftermarket it's trading $1,552 - $1,555.50.

Take the main chance: the GOLD PRICE will rise higher. It has now reached that $1,560 resistance, and if trading even HINTS it intends to pierce that level, gold will race toward $1,575. Remember meanwhile that panic is driving this, and as quick as the NGM cobble together Humpty-Dumpty again, that driver will disappear. All in, it appears that the GOLD PRICE has now forged a bottom off its May high. Trading range is from $1,480 to $1,560. Wherever this rally takes gold, it's not likely to trade below $1,510 again.

How is it, you may ask, that GOLD, which has been paralleling stocks and moving with them contrary to the US dollar, would suddenly rise with the dollar while stocks stumble? I reckon the financial crisis brewing in Italy grips so many hearts with panic that they are fleeing to liquidity, i.e., dollars and gold, and out of stocks. Unfortunately, that applies to silver also, which moves against gold as stocks move. When stocks wax strong, so silver waxes strong against gold, and vice versa. In times of panic, silver follows stocks.

Five day SILVER PRICE chart shows a turnaround. SILVER made peaks Friday and today around 3685. Silver misplaced 84.7c on Comex today, closing at 3568.9c. That fall took the gold silver ratio up from Friday's 42.183 to 43.397, a 2.9% rise. Whew. Remember that's temporary.

By 8:30 a.m. this morning silver was touching 3685c, but then wavered, lost 40c in the next two hours, and found a cliff to fall off at 3640c. In 15 minutes it dropped 90% to 3550c, but recovered a little and flatlined the day away.

Stand back from the chart and ask what that means? It means that silver has twice been turned back from 3675-3650c, and it bent silver away from the 50 DMA (3642c) nearly to its 20 DMA (3534c). None of that settles the issue positively, but it whispers that silver has been turned back for more penance at lower prices. A close above 3650c would gainsay that.

For the nonce, and probably for the duration of this financial panic, silver and gold seem to have parted ways.

Schizophrenia savaged markets today: stocks tanked, dollar rose, gold rose, silver fell. But mayhap it makes some sense.

Stocks woke up in a bad mood and moved on to a migraine. Dow dropped a meaty 151.44 points (down 1.2%) to 12,505.76. S&P500 surpassed it with a 24.31 (1.81%) drop to 1,319.49 (maybe that should be "underpassed").

The chart leads to one of two conclusions: either stocks have made a double top and will keep sinking from here, or they will recover from the present fall and reach a new high slightly higher than the last at Dow 12,875, and THEN keep sinking. Either way, lower, much lower prices await them, for their primary downtrend (bear market) runneth still.

Stocks -- they are the can of anchovies in your Investment Survival Pack.

Seems the specter of big Italian banks being found udders up in the pasture is panicking folks out of euros and into the dollar and gold -- not so much silver.

Dollar index shot up today, breaking down the door at 75.40 and rushing all the way to 76.156. Never mind the occasion, technically this sets up the dollar to break down that 76 door, too. Trading now up 64.4 basis points (0.83%) at 75.971. As I have been warning, dollar moved higher.

Of course, that means the Frankenstein currency, the euro, moved lower. While the dollar is closing in on its 200 day moving average (77.01) from below, the euro today gapped down toward its 200 Dma (now 1.3899). Looks like somebody dropping a 3 inch bolt out a 3rd story window on a still day. Jumped clean over 1.4200 to 1.4100, and closed at 1.4032, down 1.63%. Could easily hit 1.2000 or lower before this settles out. Bear in mind that all the European mega banks are wallowing as deep in rotten sovereign debt as American banks were wallowing in rotten mortgage debt in 2008 (well, more accurately, the American banks also have weighty exposure to euro sovereign debt). Point is that a financial panic such as gripped the US in fall 2008 might now seize Europe. Watch: that will send the dollar skyward, the euro earthward, gold skyward, and silver earthward. And ALL stock markets toward the earth's core.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES Probably Made Their Last Low Last Friday

SILVER and GOLD PRICES Probably Made Their Last Low Last Friday
Gold Price Close Today : 1,541.20
Gold Price Close 1-Jul : 1,482.30
Change : 58.90 or 4.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3653.6
Silver Price Close 1-Jul : 3369.4
Change : 284.20 or 8.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.183
Gold Silver Ratio 1-Jul : 43.993
Change : -1.81 or -4.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02371
Silver Gold Ratio 1-Jul : 0.02273
Change : 0.00098 or 4.3%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 169.77
Dow in Gold Dollars 1-Jul : $ 175.48
Change : $ (5.71) or -3.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.213
Dow in Gold Ounces 1-Jul : 8.489
Change : -0.28 or -3.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 346.43
Dow in Silver Ounces 1-Jul : 373.44
Change : -27.01 or -7.2%

Dow Industrial : 12,657.20
Dow Industrial 1-Jul : 12,582.77
Change : 74.43 or 0.6%

S&P 500 : 1,343.80
S&P 500 1-Jul : 1,339.67
Change : 4.13 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 75.082
US Dollar Index 1-Jul : 74.296
Change : 0.786 or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,730.50
Platinum Price Close 1-Jul : 1,719.20
Change : 11.30 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 775.05
Palladium Price Close 1-Jul : 759.70
Change : 15.35 or 2.0%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES probably made their last low last Friday, but remember the difficulties of summer, so they may see more range trading, bounded by $1,560 and $1,490 and 3850c - 3370c -- through most of August. However, as it was plain last week that the gold price closing above $1,510 would turn the gold price up, and turn up it did, with a vengeance, gaining 4% in 4 days. Today it added another $11 to reach $1,541.20. Yes, I did say yesterday that a close over $1,540 would take gold at least to $1,560. Look for it next week.

The gold price chart in euros looks even more bullish than the dollar gold chart, as my friend Bob the Technical Genius pointed out to me. There it touched its 200 DMA last week, and has climbed nearly to its all-time high.

If the gold price can pierce $1,560 (closing basis) and $1,575 intraday, it will launch a new leg up. Right now euro-fears are driving it, but just be careful. A market trading in a range is just a rattlesnake weaving back and forth trying to figure out where to bite you. If you're buying for the long term, just look at the gold price and ask yourself, "Can I buy here and swallow the risk it will drop 5%?" If you can, go ahead and buy it.

The silver price gained 284.2c or 8.4% in four days. Stay out of the way.

What's odd is that today it only added 8/10 of a cent. In the aftermarket its about 20c higher.

The area 3650-3675c is old resistance now, and the 50 day moving average is kicking in its share at 3667c, too. Above the next barrier is 3850c. The silver price has turned up dramatically, but is it only for another rally-within-the-range up to 3850c? Will it re-visit 3370c?

Once again, how greedy are you? How much risk can you stand? Buying here you risk a fall of 300c or 8.2%. Want to risk that, or wait until silver either breaks out above 3850c or drops down to 3370c?

Oh, I'm not worried about silver or gold price for the next few years, or even after August, but right now we have to deal with this frustrating bottoming process, and you can never be certain you've see than bottom until an upside breakout is confirmed. If you wait until then, you'll pay a lot more. All those clowns and commentators who are pronouncing an end to silver's bull market, let alone gold's, ought to have their microphones and computers confiscated and be locked up in the stocks where people could throw rotten eggs at them. No, the long term bull market is not in any doubt or peril.

Once again, I turn to the consolations of Tennessee Philosophy. What doth it matter if a man for the sake of 8.2% risk misseth buying a bull market position? We aren't working for 8.2% or 10%, or even 20%, but the triple or quadruple the bull market will bring from here.

That's what I like about Tennessee Philosophy: it brings perspective, even to a natural born fool.

Y'all are watching a correction in a bull market. Don't get hung up on buying at the perfect price, just beware you buy all you can stand.

Stocks had their brief moment in the sun, then gave most of it back this week. Silver and gold astonished, while platinum and palladium did little. US dollar index proved its uptrend.

Whatever fuel was driving stocks was used up this week. They fell a little short of the high I expected, 12,753 versus 12,875, but they may make that point yet.

Most interesting is that stocks squandered all their strength against gold in one fell spurt, like some kid laying a toothpaste tube down on the counter and hitting it with his fist. Big spurt shoots toward the ceiling, but nothing happens after that (except your mother finds toothpaste on the wall and you have to fetch a switch off the peach tree). The Dow in Gold Dollars shot above its 200 DMA (G$172.61 or 8.35 oz) for one whole day, then fell beneath again, and today approached the 50 DMA down below (G$168.27 or 8.14 Oz). Only a matter of time until stocks begin free-falling against gold.

Stocks -- they are the empty parachute pack in Investment Sky-diving Gear.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose modestly today to 75.082, up 12.5 basis points. Not a big deal, but still a big deal because (1) dollar broke 75 this week without following thru downside, and (2) dollar index double bottomed yesterday and today at 74.85, (3) dollar remains above 75 and so in the uptrend begun off the May 1 bottom.

The euro reeled backward again with news of troubles in the Italian banking system, arrest of a friend of the finance minister, and said minister's nearness to resigning. "Is Italy next to fail?" wonder the fearful. Euro closed down 2/3 of 1% today at 1.4264. The yen jumped today back to the 20 DMA, closing at Y80.61/$ (124.06c/Y100).

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

The GOLD PRICE Bettered Yesterday's Performance by Rising $16.40 to $1,528.70

The GOLD PRICE Bettered Yesterday's Performance by Rising $16.40 to $1,528.70
Gold Price Close Today : 1528.70
Change : 16.40 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.911
Change : 0.509 or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.57
Change : -0.149 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02349
Change : 0.000082 or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1727.20
Change : -14.00 or -0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 766.55
Change : -8.90 or -1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,337.56
Change : -0.32 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.59
Change : $ (1.21) or -0.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.252
Change : -0.059 or -0.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 351.29
Change : -3.77 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,615.28
Change : 45.41 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 75.03
Change : 0.339 or 0.5%

With SILVER and GOLD we stand in great peril of misunderstanding either way: discounting a real rally, or crediting a spurious one.

The GOLD PRICE bettered yesterday's performance by rising $16.40 to $1,528.70, not quite closing thru that definitive $1,530 mark, but clearing $1,525. Sometimes those resistance/support areas don't lie exactly where you think. On gold's side for a breakout, it has traded clean through the 20 and 50 DMAs ($1,522.17 and $1,520.28). It did push as high as $1,533.60, and defended $1,510 handily at $1,509.90.

Chances are, today exhausted for the nonce gold's upward energy. Unless it punches thru $1,533.60 tomorrow, expect it to rest between $1,518 and $1,530 a day or two. Proof the past two days were merely an anomalous short-covering rally comes with any close below $1,500.

Otherwise we are faced with the conclusion that gold has already finally bottomed on Tuesday at $1,482.30.

The SILVER PRICE gobbled up another 50.9c and ran as high as 3625c but couldn't hold those heights. Comex closed at 3591.1c. Close, but no cigar, and in my mind that 3600c mark carries lots of weight. Silver remains above its 20 DMA (3541c).

This is the part of this job I dislike, not because I dislike making decisions but merely because they seem so momentous at the time, but are in truth minute. Do we buy silver at 3600c or 3300c, an 8.3% difference? Will that little difference really engage your attention at all when the silver price trades at US$106.50? Right, if 3304c was the low, then a reasonable target is 10650c. Yes, the 8.3% is important, but in the long run it won't be the difference between blood plasma and Gatorade, just between one teaspoon of sugar in your tea and one and a quarter.

Right now silver only needs to hold above 3550c, and can drop at most to 3360c.

Buy all you can on any retreat. I'm tired of waiting. I haven't totally shaken the hope we will see the 200 DMA (not 3186c) but that hope grows as dim as one of those blamed fluorescent light bulbs the government is now stuffing down our throats.

Silver and gold prices remain in a long term bull market. Forget the fluctuations, the only strategy in a bull market is to buy, and then buy more, never looking back.

On Friday the Dow in Gold dollars shot above the 200 DMA to G$175.48 (8.489 oz). The last two days the DiG$ has filled that gap up and collapsed nearly to the 50 DMA G$168.268 (8.14), closing today at G$170.59 (8.252).

What does all that mean? That stocks have shot their bolt against gold.

Today the Dow and S&P500 contradicted each other. Dow rose 45.41 (0.36%) to 12,615.28 in ragged trading but the SYP500, likewise ragged, closed 1,337.56, down 0.32.

Dow remains broken out above the downtrend line, so you have to count the trend still in force as long as it hasn't been contradicted. Nonetheless, I have no more desire to own stocks than I have to contract elephantiasis. Oh, what mourning, weeping, and gnashing of teeth await stock investors!

US DOLLAR INDEX keeps on ratcheting up, step by step. Today it crossed through 7470 and jumped over 75, and not tradeth at 75.025, up 33.9 basis points (0.44%). Some horizontal resistance awaits at 75.75 - 76, but inertia favours the dollar. It is trading above its 20 and 50 DMAs. May make slow progress, but will keep on progressing upward.

Euro and yen showed no cards today. All the euro's recent rallying only traced out a confirmation of the downtrend. Euro closed today 1.4317, down 0.74%. Yen closed Y80.95/$ (123.54c/Y100). All quiet there.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.